The Hurdles That Hurt China

INTRODUCTION:


In the last decade China has shown its military prowess to the world and its manufacturing sector watched a strange story of sustained growth. In spite of these, China faces lots of trouble in coming days which may act as hindrances in the road of being a true superpower, a country having economic as well as military might. China's main problems are three folded, economic, political and geo-political.


ECONOMIC HURDLES :


One thing we've realized over recent years is that nothing goes up in a straight line forever. China looks like it is about to inherit the world, but Japan looked like that for a while. Japan was the second largest economy in the world. We were told that one day the world would be run by Japan. It didn’t turn out that way.

Most Asian Tigers have grown at about 9% a year for 20-25 years and then shifted downward to 6% or 5% growth. I’m not predicting any kind of Chinese crash. I am simply saying that China will follow that law of large numbers and regress at some point to a slower growth rate - perhaps a little bit later than the others because it is a much larger country.

But it is also worth pointing out that there are massive inefficiencies built into the Chinese economic system. They have a huge property bubble. Their growth is highly inefficient. In terms of foreign direct investment, China attracts every month what India takes in every year. Still China only grows two percentage points faster than India.

In other words, if you think about the quality of Chinese growth, it’s not as impressive as it appears. They are undertaking massive investments - huge numbers of airports, eight-lane highways and high-speed rail. But if you look at what you are getting in terms of the return on investment it is not as impressive.

China has another huge problem. The UN just came out with a report that pointed out that China is going to have a demographic collapse over the next 25 years. It is going to lose 400 million people.

There is no point in human history in which you have had a dominant power in the world that is also declining demographically. It simply doesn’t happen. And if you want to look at what a country in demographic decline looks like, look at Japan.



POLITICAL WEAKNESS :


Let’s say that China does become the largest economy in the world: Does it have the political capacity to exercise the kind of leadership you need?

Remember, Japan was the second largest economy in the world for decades and I didn’t see any kind of grand, hegemonic design. You need to have the political capacity to be able to exercise that kind of leadership.

China is a country ruled by a political system that is in crisis.

It is unclear whether the next succession that China goes through will look anything like this current one. China has not solved the basic problem of what it is going to do when it creates a middle class and how it will respond to the aspirations of those people.

When Taiwan went through a similar process, what you saw was a transition to democracy; when South Korea went through it, you saw a transition to democracy. These were not easy periods. They were fairly bloody and chaotic.




GEO-POLITICAL PROBLEMS :


People like to talk about the rise of Asia. But there is no such thing as Asia. There’s China; there’s Japan; there’s India. And they don’t much like each other.

You are going to find that as China rises there is going to be a spirited response in India, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and others. You already have begun to see the stirrings of this. China is not rising in a vacuum. It is rising on a continent in which there are many, many competitors.

SHAKE THE BASE OF CORRUPTION

Rocked by public exposure of scandal after scandal, involving hundreds of billions of rupees in recent months on one hand and beset with increasingly tougher challenges of answering demands of anti-graft and anti-black money mass movements of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev on the other, the decision making machinery of the UPA government seems to have come to a creaking halt. Unfortunately, this is happening under the country's finest living economist prime minister, who should be only too aware of the costs of a thriving corruption as also future costs of a limbo in decision making. Frankly, while the government and society concur on the evils of corruption and black money, particularly earned through reprehensible ways, what is lacking is political will and this is applicable to all political parties; though, those in the opposition are intent on deriving maximum mileage from the predicament of the government. This is because elections are the basic roots of corruption in a democracy, more so in developing countries.

Black money is total black, lacking shades of colour: it could be money earned legitimately but involving evasion of taxes or it could be money made illegitimately from corruption, smuggling and extortion. Again, the money could remain within the country or it could be stashed away abroad. Corruption money, besides that from smuggling and extortion, is to be despised most as rampaging grafts lower ethical and moral values in the society; it is like cancer that saps into the basic fabric of the society.

At the moment, it is corruption money that is in limelight. While the society does not have control over 'outlaws' and their shady activities, we, the law abiding citizens, do have a role in banishing corruption from our midst. Legislations would no doubt help, but what is more important is commitment from the receivers and, more importantly, from payers' side not to corrupt. Whereas receivers have all the temptations to get some undeserved extra money, givers are also equally responsible as without their connivance, corruption cannot exist. Sadly, we are all part of the dishonest system: ask anybody, whether he or she has at any time greased the palms of a peon, a traffic constable, some priest in a temple and the like to get out-of-turn favours and regrettably the answer would be "yes". So, what is required for getting rid of corruption, particularly in government, is cleansing the behaviour and attitude of citizens in all strata of society, apart from enforcing laws diligently at all layers of administration. Though it would look like a Utopian dream, if this happens we would not need the Anna Hazares and Baba Ramdevs; in fact, everybody would be on vigil, decontaminating the very environment that nurtures corruption in the government sector.

Incidentally, a robustly growing, deepening telecom sector, which has been showcased as the biggest achievement of the post-reforms era for successful private sector participation, is mired most in corruption charges. Lastly, as we have been underlining in these columns corruption is an evil, but governance paralysis, where no decisions, right or wrong, are taken by bureaucrats fearing scrutiny is a bigger evil for a developing country, as it would mean halting development, which a poor country like India (in terms of per capita income) can ill afford.

FRAGMENTED THOUGHTS - II

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17.09.2009 11:54 IST

Love is a temporary madness. It erupts like an earthquake and then subsides. And when it subsides you have to make a decision. You have to work out whether your roots have become so entwined together that it is inconceivable that you should ever part. Because this is what love is. Love is not breathlessness, it is not excitement, it is not the promulgation of promises of eternal passion. That is just being "in love" which any of us can convince ourselves we are. Love itself is what is left over when being in love has burned away, and this is both an art and a fortunate accident.

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15.09.2009 15:35 IST

Being Loved is the Greatest Sensation! most of us are already aware of the intensity of love, we also know the sensation, the rise of heart beat, the sweating during chilling weather are not very strange phenomena experienced by the persons in love. They are the outcome of our faster metabolism occured during the period of crisis. These sensation is no doubt, great, but don't you think that the sensation of being loved intensely by your partner.

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14.09.2009 03:41 IST

LOVE IS IMMORTAL! it is surprising that love a characteristics of mortal human being, but it does note perish as the person dies and perishes... the memory of their love still be there as other would remember them hence it doesn't perish!

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13.09.2009 02:13 IST

ABOUT INNER FEELINGS: "I know these are nothing but a chemical reactions of Serotonin Secretion & Synthesis. The sudden surge of emotion and the abundant display exotic but erratic thoughts are by-products of the serotonin secretion..., believe me, I know each of these principle, but the real fallacy is that I still believe in the notion that LOVE EXISTS at some other superior level, something beyond our perception, our visible Universe."

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FRAGMENTED THOUGHTS

LIFE IS VERY PECULIAR.

                    Can we predict about our own future? Can we predict about those silly incidents which later on became one of the most vital events based on which life has been completely changed in the course of time?

                 No body can. We are just the pawns in the hand of divine force, yet, we seek to improve the probability of a good future relentlessly! This is one kind of emotional drag which forces a human being to take some actions which sometimes can be defined as the basis of selfishness of human beings as a whole. 


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THE HEALING OF MIND : 

 

                   The vicious cycles of love & pain is sometimes exceed beyond limit, when your natural survival instincts will be activated and brain will to mitigate the mental pain & extreme stress by rewiring of neurons and by secretion of specific "happyness harbinger" neurotransmitters like serotonin & dopamine. Hence, after sometimes we say the pain has gone and you have becomes relaxed and happy. Thus our own brain heals our emotional wound. 


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THE HOME:
                   
                What does home means to me? Does it convey any special meaning to me. May be, as I have never wanted to stay at a place where no warmth is there to greet me, when I would back from my work place. I don't want a home where I shall be compelled to stay in stead of glad to stay. If there doesn't exist a magnetic pull towards home in the evening on its own, then I shall find it very difficult to say my room as a home. I have always wanted to have a home not rooms, but ... its an irony of fate... really.



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 MONEY & LOVE:

                       "One thing is certain in Life and I am sure beyond doubt that money can't buy everythng. I have seen other sides of love & life too. Sometimes I feel that I don't know myself properly, may be its the reason of my double jeopardy... sometimes I feel my ability to read others mind may the "rotten mango". Sometimes it seems, "ignorance proves to be a bliss". It's true, I myself have experienced these feelings. Why we are unable to find a solution of the most trivial query of life? No one knows, no one!" 


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HIGH PITCH DRAMA: 

Life is full of high pitch drama.
We used to explore it into panorama,
distance memories, distance thought
and crazy emotions I had fought.
grope me tight in their grip.
Life is just like a circular trip


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 THE LIFE AFTER:

What happens when a long-term relation breaks? Heart breaks, it creates pain. A magnitude of pain that can't be relieved by popular analgesics like "paracetamol". So, what does this pain signify? There is no physical wound neither any kind of internal injuries. Then from where this unbearable pain comes?  


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 THE FROZEN FEELINGS:

Nobody can know the internal feelings of another person! Feelings are truely individual and it will remain untill  humanity can read a thought process of a human brain with the help of a transducer which would convert a brain's electrical signal into speeches, words and sentences. Sometimes one may wonder about the nature of reality that we experience. If we want to know the origin of human emotion, then first of all we must have to decode the brain's electrical signal pulses. But, can a thought be present and remain active for a long time inside the brain? Yes, it may be. I have felt it and in fact I am feeling it now even. Do you believe in "Love"? If there exists anything called love, then it must be a set of pure feelings and pure feelings only, nothing else, an intense feelings of so strong magnitude, that none can survive without being affected by that intense piece of pure feelings. Pundits may argue, but still I would like to say. Among thousands of partners even, a person falls in love only once in a life time. Only with a person who is the true soulmate. We may live with others, we may enjoy our life with a person who is not the soulmate, even we may say, "I love you" to others, but believe me that is mere a collection of three words and nothing else! There won't be those magical feelings concommitant to this three word sentence! No feelings, it is a compromise only, a person can never fall in love twice with different persons. Never, never, never................

Feelings will be frozen in time only...... 

PERCEPTION: WHAT IS EXISTENCE?

PERCEPTION: WHAT IS EXISTENCE? ©subhankar_karmakar

PERCEPTION: WHAT IS EXISTENCE?

Oriental philosophy is heavily influenced by consciousness, soul and the supreme force. But in the field of the scientific explanation of human consciousness, there exists hardly any strong opinion combining these two apparently incoherent objects.

Perception is a very critical concept, we define reality on the basis of perception. So, what is reality at the first place? It is very hard to describe reality, especially the physical reality. There are scientists who are proponents of "Universe is a giant hologram" theory and in that case everything that we perceive as a physical reality is nothing but a finely tuned simulated reality. So, are we living in a simulated reality?


       It has been already established that the observer plays a great role both in Quantum Mechanics and our consciousness. Are these two is related, in fact it is probable that our brain processes informations send by sensory organs by using Quantum Computing, but the role of quantum mechanics in defining our conscious is not clear till now. Consciousness is a very complex phenomenon, we still don't know much about its origin.

       There is a hypothesis where it is argued that our brain stores information in our memory as a Hologram which is a 3D image which can store information about phase difference in the form of optical interference. But in that case who would decode the interference patterns to generate information about 3D surroundings, hence there must be an observer to judge the content of that memory!

       Many eminent scientists are working on this topic, although the opinions are diverse but most of them promise to reveal a greater role of Consciousness in describing our universe, which is the basic aim of science too. What is the real architecture of the universe? What we see in the sky above is a depiction of the visible universe, so is it the real structure of the universe?

       We are living sentient organism, we have our own perception about our surroundings, and act accordingly. We can perceive our surroundings, but the real challenge is to define Perception coherently. So what is perception? Is there any way to define perception as a result of execution of any physical or chemical process that starts as soon as it gets information as input from our sensory organs, like eyes, ears, skin, nose and tongue.

       Recalling quantum mechanics is about connectivity on the subatomic level it is important to remember that what applies at that level applies at this level as well. It has to or there would have to be discontinuity between the micro level and the macro level. Connectivity means all things are attached and part of one larger system. The inescapable fact is that if all things are attached then it is impossible for one thing to change and not to affect everything else. This inescapable fact explains mathematical chaos theory. This is where the concept that the movement of a butterfly wings can affect the formation of a cyclone on the other side of the world. It is important to realize that this is not cause and effect. That is to say though the butterfly movement affects the cyclone it does not cause the cyclone. The outcome is the summation of all of an infinite number of affects and therefore not predictable. It may be approximated but never predicted.

       Quantum mechanical results are outcome directed. This means there are a number of QM possibilities that are refined by perspective about choices into QM probabilities. It is important to realize the meltdown is the summation of all the activities and expectations according to our beliefs about the system. Outcomes are created on a QM level by choice of the reality the observer observes. Collective outcomes are determined by collective choices about the reality to be observed. Our connection to all others in the world whether societies, economies, forests, animals is undeniable and all things we do or conceive affects every thing else. The economic situation is simply the latest event that brings this to our attention.


       * Level zero understanding total separation creates fears about how others behavior affect us leads to behavior that creates chaos i.e. meltdown

       * Level one understanding us vs them, partial connectivity leads us to less fear but still meltdown to some extent depending on how much we see ourselves attached to each other, i.e. this was caused by some of us, but not me

       * Level two understanding total connectivity, we are all responsible for these events and can only change outcome when we share responsibility equally and thus are able to see a different out come, outcome of sharing equally results in all experiencing sharing without sensation of loss Our experience meltdown or non-meltdown will then be determined by the level of our collective understanding about the reality of our choices and perspective. This reflects the also the fact that this also applies to any other possible experience.